ARORA AMBASSADOR CLUB

THE END GAME IN UKRAINE

Get Ahead

Scary headlines in the media lead to investors making mistakes.

Investors need to get ahead based on high probability scenarios.

Instructive

An understanding of the history of the Russian defeat in Afghanistan and victory in Chechnya is very instructive for investors in the current situation.

The End Game

The highest probability scenario is the following.

– Ukraine does not join NATO.

– Russia gets as much as it can on top of Ukraine not joining NATO.

– There is an off-ramp that allows Putin to declare success.

Action Items

The podcast discusses the following.

– Oil

– Natural gas

– Nickel

– Aluminum

– Palladium

– Wheat

– Russia

– Eastern Europe

– Poland

– Germany

– European financials

– Alcoa

– JP Morgan

– Occidental Petroleum

– Shell

– Nestle

– Unilever


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